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This is a problem with nearly all predictions about the future. Everything is just a linear extrapolation of the status quo. How could a system have predicted the invention of the transformer model in 2010? At best some wild guess about deep learning possibilities.

Or the impact of smartphones in 2003? Sure smart phones were considered but not the entire app ecosystem and planetary behavioral adaptation.


Yes, of course this is right. However, I do think LLMs suffer even more than people from linear extrapolation.


Just goes to show that biology is WAY more complicated than "if you want to prevent X then do Y" - especially at microbilogical scale. Genes influence each other for example, so by up- or downregulating stuff you are interfering in a highly complex, non-linear system with complex consequences.

Just look at this example of a gene regulation network: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Different-visualizations...


You are responding to someone with a sex-based racist slur as their username.


Then this empty shell of a person would know the fate they would meet in a healthy and just society.


This is all a great way of describing why art works as a money laundering or tax evasion scheme.


Can you elaborate further on the tax evasion part? The money laundering part I can see since the value of art is subjective and volatile, but how does what OP said explain how art can be used for tax evasion?


The artwork is then given to a museum as a charitable donation for a tax write-off, or so the story goes.


Even if this were true (and it's not), that is not tax evasion.


It's tax avoidance. The difference between the two is one is legal and the other is not.


Congrats, first time I noticeably hear my MBP M4 Pro fans and can feel the temperature through the keyboard.

Amazing work, as always. I love neal.fun

Edit: also good to know that paper airplanes have officially beat the SR-71, F-104 or X-43B with altitude record.


I dunno, by that rationale you could argue that Tesla Roadsters have officially beaten the X-43B's altitude record, couldn't you?


Yes, absolutely but I found it funny anyway!


Uh yea, thats because we tax everyone to hell EXCEPT the rich. Wealth inequality is a serious problem and we are moving to catastrophe sooner rather than later on the current path.

It's obvious why the ultra-rich are building bunkers and hide-outs. Those are of course scams by the building companies, as they give a false sense of security, but the idea of what is REALLY going on is obviously out there.


> It's obvious why the ultra-rich are building bunkers and hide-outs. Those are of course scams by the building companies, as they give a false sense of security, but the idea of what is REALLY going on is obviously out there.

The main problem being, you can’t operate the bunker yourself. How do you ensure the non-billionaires on your staff don’t murder you and use your bunker themselves? This is assuming a catastrophe that forces a move to a bunker and changes the rules of society.

It’s an intractable problem, billionaires are reliant on the rest of us to do their bidding. That does not change in a crisis/catastrophe.


* Wealth inequality in US is clearly a big problem. But it’s typically not a big problem in the rest of the world, certainly in EU.

* If you think taxes and donations will solve the problem with people who struggle with basics, you are wrong. Again look at the world, places like France.


I even curated a list of 6-8 sources in NotebookLM recently, asked a very straight-forward question (which credential formats does OID4VP allow). The sources were IETF and OpenID specs + some additional articles on it.

I wanted to use NotebookLM as a tool to ask back and forth when I was trying to understand stuff. It got the answer 90% right but also added a random format, sounding highly confident as if I asked the spec authors themselves.

It was easy to check the specs when I became suspicious and now my trust, even in "grounded" LLMs, is completely eroded when it comes to knowledge and facts.


That's only really value if the chips are useful and if there are people buying the chips for something they want to do with them.

It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM hallucinated crap into their reports (and they failed to correct it).

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/oct/06/deloi...


Deloitte just bought like 400k Claude enterprise licenses. Bad example.


You could argue about the causality here.


> It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM hallucinated crap into their reports (and they failed to correct it).

This assumes Deloitte didn't make more $$$ from the deal by "outsourcing" it to AI than not. It was a partial refund.


You haven’t brought in the side costs into your analysis


> You haven’t brought in the side costs into your analysis

And you haven't considered that Deloitte might get this money some other way anyway. It's been budgeted and needs to be spent by the government department for this financial year. They'll find another project to hand out.


lol you and I are not talking about the same stuff mate


What does Ellisons personal wealth have to do with this? The concern is that the circular pattern of shifting money between these companies is artificially inflating the stock market to heights that will crash very very badly when this bubble finally pops.


The market is due a correction irrespective of bubble mania.

The implied equity risky premium is getting pretty low - a sign of greed.


This is why I am really looking forward to PIDs in the European Digital Identity ecosystem (EUDI) [1]. This works with the OpenID Verifiable Credentials spec built on top of Oauth2. There are open source solutions in the competition for building the EUDI Wallet and the architecture and reference framework is openly accessible [2]. All credentials are kept with the holder (you) at all times. Basically implementation of the EU eIDAS 2.0 regulation, obviously subject to GDPR.

Mandated to be accessible to EU citizens by 2027 when all Member States have developed a Wallet solution.

Not associated but learned through it at work recently, just awesome project and thought I'd share in this context.

[1] https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-...

[2] https://eu-digital-identity-wallet.github.io/eudi-doc-archit...

[3] https://github.com/openwallet-foundation/credo-ts


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