I'm a heavy business traveler, though not a business commuter per se. In my experience with oversold flights, there are a few people who will eventually cave and take the buyout -- but I want to place sharp emphasis on the word eventually.
The moment an airline attendant announces an oversold situation, that announcement kicks off a frantic battle between dopey consumer game theory calculus on the one hand, and rigid airline offer-escalation procedure on the other. This slow, maddeningly predictable war of attrition often results in delays of 45 minutes or more. Those delays cascade into further delays when the flight misses its departure window.
We have a "not enough dopes" problem. There need to be more people willing to take buyouts, and since that's not happening, we can consider pretty much any alternative solutions that make sense.
>This slow, maddeningly predictable war of attrition often results in delays of 45 minutes or more.
I'm a 2-million-miles frequent flyer on American Airlines and I've never seen voucher auctions require 45 minutes. Usually it takes less than 5 minutes. Often, the gate agents run the auction in the lounge which doesn't add any delay to the plane pushing away from the gate.
>We have a "not enough dopes" problem. There need to be more people willing to take buyouts, and since that's not happening,
Is the goal to have zero involuntary bumps? Because 40,000 involuntary bumps out of 660,000,000[1] seems like there are "enough dopes" on virtually every plane.
Right. The solution is for them to immediately say: We need 3 people to take this offer of $800 in US cash (not vouchers), or 3 people will be selected randomly.
I guarantee there will be enough takers. The issue is, even though the cost of overbooking is already factored into the cost of the flight, the airline is still trying to eek out extra dollars by offering less than the cost (vouchers, starting with lowball offers, etc).
I'm not a lawyer, but pre-announcing that three unfortunate souls will be summarily booted from the plane seems like a lawsuit waiting to happen. I'm guessing they go through the whole song and dance partially to minimize the payout, partially to collect data on average payouts and equilibrium pricing, and partially to create the opportunity for volunteers to leave willingly.
Don't get me wrong; I'd love if they simply cut to the chase. But airlines are not in the business of customer service, as is often painfully obvious. They seem to take their business practices from the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition. (In particular, the dictum, "Once you've got their money, never give it back.")
