If a weather forecaster can predict the temperature next week to within a few degrees and can tell you when they are sure it will rain, when they are sure it will be sunny, and provide a good guess as to rain or shine on most of the other days you would consider that person a good weather forecaster.
Do you expect the weather report for the next week to nail the temperature of every day next week to within 1 degree?
The pollsters can tell you if a hurricane is coming, they can tell you when the weather might shift significantly (albeit not be absolutely certain about which direction it is shifting) and they can give you a very good idea of what to expect even if they do not get the exact temp for each day correct.
Do you expect the weather report for the next week to nail the temperature of every day next week to within 1 degree?
The pollsters can tell you if a hurricane is coming, they can tell you when the weather might shift significantly (albeit not be absolutely certain about which direction it is shifting) and they can give you a very good idea of what to expect even if they do not get the exact temp for each day correct.