But you didn't actually show the margin of error. In any case, I think I'd take this argument more seriously in an article of its own, rather than on a back-and-forth forum like this. Not enough opportunities to request and provide context.
This exactly. If there's one thing all my physics and math teachers burned into my head, it's that a number without an error is meaningless.
Florida for examples may be off by 8 points, but 538 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning, so it was well within the error. What people don't realize is that the error on polls are pretty damn big, and elections in modern times have been extremely close. Like most of the swing states come down to under 100k votes / 1%. It's insane how close these rates are, and no polls will ever have any chance at predicting things like that.
