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It it was not a good signal, then a competing auto insurance company would advertise that it does not penalize speeding drivers and win more business.


This is a false dichotomy. It can be noisy and weak without being a competitive disadvantage for the insurance business.


How can it not be a competitive disadvantage? Auto insurance profit margins are very low, and I’m sure the actuaries have access to plenty of data about losses correlated with speeding.

If a speeding ticket did not result in higher losses (probabilistically, not in specific individual cases of course), then a person with a speeding ticket should be able to find cheaper insurance.

The other option is there’s highly qualified people who are decent enough at math to operate insurance companies, but not decent enough to realize they are mispricing an obvious variable.


You're not arguing against a statement I've made.


Then I’m unsure what you mean by “noisy and weak” signal if it does not lead to a mispriced insurance product.




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