When most people talk about conspiracy theories, they are actually talking about motivational theories.
For example, with the 'China lab leak theory', there is no actual evidence of Sars-Cov2 in that lab before the outbreak. What does exist is the belief that 'the Chinese government lies'/'scientists lie'/'Chinese people lie' or some combination or offshoot of these. There is a belief that sinister things happen in labs. There is a belief that it would take serious coordinated effort by humans to cause this much disruption in our lives.
It is psychologically much easier to believe that if we could find the people responsible for this and stop them, we can prevent pandemics like this. It is very hard to hold in your head that disease agents can be transmitted from animal populations to human populations at any time and we have no significant control over this.
I'm sure I'm doing a lot of projection here, but then so is everyone else.
Just FYI - I think it is possible that the virus leaked from the lab, but it is significantly more likely that it was an animal virus (like 1000:1 in favor of 'natural' zoonotic origin)
The standards of evidence you're used to cannot be the same in this instance.
The CCP targets dissenters and has a long history of doing so, including openly killing them. Internally, news unfavorable to the CCP rarely comes from established outlets (so it's possible to dismiss it all as hearsay - try constructing your view of China using only Mainland Chinese mass media!).
Also, how are you supposed to get evidence if they destroy it and don't allow independent researchers in? There is far too much damage control going on; is not blocking the steps needed to get the evidence you require, a red flag in itself for you?
I think those are all very good questions. No one should be shouted down for asking them.
I think it is very important to be critical of media controlled by a political party.
These are all very natural feelings, and as context they are important.
However, there is more context that is important. For instance, there are many many examples of viruses making the jump from animals to humans, some recent examples are Sars-COV1, MERS, and H5N1.
The questions you ask sound like the ones raised about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction - Saddam Hussein certainly was motivated to lie and cover up, but even with all those red flags, no WMDs were found.
In other words, to make a real case requires more than red flags.
The motivation of the people raising the accusations should also be examined. In the case of Iraq's WMDs, there was a desire to remove Hussein from power. In the case of China, there is a desire to discredit and diminish China's power on the world stage.
The bottom line is, you can not prove it was manufactured in one of the labs we know exists in China (and was partially funded by the US) because you cannot get in. Since we can't get more than red flags, then it's just a baseless conspiracy theory, right?
China's behavior with SARS was the same: lying about figures, refusing to cooperate etc. This time, as usual, the CCP's (local government) initial move was to silence whistleblowers, which helped it spread.
America's mass media and big tech, which is dominated by the Left, almost refuses to say anything negative about China.
> then it's just a baseless conspiracy theory, right?
I'm just saying that I find the motivation behind the conspiracy theory more interesting than the theories themselves, which are generally information light and insinuation rich.
People all over the world lie. I think lab leak speciation is more driven by a lab mucking about with bat coronaviruses being around the corner and the bats 600 miles away.
For example, with the 'China lab leak theory', there is no actual evidence of Sars-Cov2 in that lab before the outbreak. What does exist is the belief that 'the Chinese government lies'/'scientists lie'/'Chinese people lie' or some combination or offshoot of these. There is a belief that sinister things happen in labs. There is a belief that it would take serious coordinated effort by humans to cause this much disruption in our lives.
It is psychologically much easier to believe that if we could find the people responsible for this and stop them, we can prevent pandemics like this. It is very hard to hold in your head that disease agents can be transmitted from animal populations to human populations at any time and we have no significant control over this.
I'm sure I'm doing a lot of projection here, but then so is everyone else.
Just FYI - I think it is possible that the virus leaked from the lab, but it is significantly more likely that it was an animal virus (like 1000:1 in favor of 'natural' zoonotic origin)