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I happened to read it already.

Are you willing to bet that the tweaked Moderna vaccine (the trials of it was announced, right?) shows worse efficacy than the original? Odds 51:49 in your favor, null hypothesis of the same efficacy is a tie. That's generous I think, if nobody knows.

If not - why not?



Are you arguing we should just assume the new changes are good and roll them out without testing?


Yes, without large scale randomized efficacy trials. That's what we do with the flu.




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