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So one question here is: Why reduce the distribution (with long tail or whatever) to a single estimate number? If the distribution represents the range of possible outcomes well, then the single number throws away most of the information in the distribution.


I strongly agree, giving people the distribution conveys a lot of information especially if everyone is clear on what the parameters of that distribution mean (ie: what's the low estimate mean?).

At the same time, there are occasions where it can be useful to collapse a distribution for some types of reports, or for quickly looking across estimates.




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