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You have cherrypicked the time period making your point without showing the 2020 spike driven by Covid has been zeroed out most and oblivious to the point the knife is still falling fast.

Random Spot check on a single family home in highly impacted San Mateo. Surprise, list price is $2.08mm($2.2MM Zestimate) down $600k from March 2022 Zestimate of $2.7mm for a 22% drop from peak in less than half a year. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4241-Bettina-Ave-San-Mate...



Cherrypicked 70 years of data? up until 2 months ago? So take that May data that I posted, reduce it by 22%, you're still at 1.5 TIMES the 50 year average, or ~7 times the median income. That house needs to go down A LOT more than ~20% to get back to the "cherrypicked" > 50 year average.

If you have those two most recent months (June, July) that I left out of the 70 year picture please link to some data that includes them

Even before covid we were over we were over the average. This is national average btw. Not "a random sample" in SF that also proves my point because most people cant afford a ~2 million dollar home.

I feel like if you're index on 2 million dollar homes no wonder you don't think there is a housing crisis. You can afford anything you want


Payments have spiked 50%+ in about the missing time period thanks to rate raises. And that 1.5 times average about in line to well below the delta in money printing average in the same time period.

The story here is NIMBYism, California Real Estate, Tech, and the "housing shortage". Your data is honed in on the Nation Average and emphasizes the 2020 spike in prices that reflects an exceptional supply constraint in conjunction with a massive(exceptional) migration driver and breakout money printing(none of which speak to a localized housing shortage which would interface conflicts with NIMBYism in a material way). NIMBYism is primarily focused on affluent communities, so low income communities and national averages are fairly irrelevant in arguments pertaining to such(most communities can't lawyer up for long property battles). Most arguments conflating NIMBYism to other issues are calls for Government housing support.

Unfortunately most of the data I'm working on is derived from Zillow, which is specific to markets, lagging, and not open for export. Look at the Zillow charts of the average homes in most of the real NIMBY markets(San Mateo, San Francisco, Orange County, Marin, Etc) and you will see a fast dropping Zestimate that is well above the average transaction prices actually conducted in the last few weeks. All while supply is accumulating well outside averages. Debt bubbles pop fast. This one is the beneficiaries of government pumping debt with low interest rates into homes surrounding the growth companies that rode its wave. Tides out, so boats are hitting the shore.




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