> I don't want to sound melodramatic, but when humanity on average produces less than 2 children per woman, it is heading for extinction. I keep hearing all sorts of counter-arguments, such as:
> * there is too many people
If there's any negative feedback effect, like, "holy shit, we have no space-- let's breed less!" then it's all just fine if you have a ton of people around.
Population contracts; there's more resources available per person; population increases. It seeks equilibrium.
If there's even any subgroups breeding above replacement stably, this all works out: the subgroups that breed above replacement replace the groups that breed below replacement.
> we desperately need more children born
Human population isn't contracting.
Even if it starts contracting 10% per generation (call that 25 years), we'll still be over a billion people 475 years from now. Population is increasing; we're not about to start shrinking by 10% per generation anytime soon. There's nothing "desperate" about this.
On the other hand, if we wreck the whole planet and 90% of us die off, we'll reach a billion people in the relatively short term.
> * there is too many people
If there's any negative feedback effect, like, "holy shit, we have no space-- let's breed less!" then it's all just fine if you have a ton of people around.
Population contracts; there's more resources available per person; population increases. It seeks equilibrium.
If there's even any subgroups breeding above replacement stably, this all works out: the subgroups that breed above replacement replace the groups that breed below replacement.
> we desperately need more children born
Human population isn't contracting.
Even if it starts contracting 10% per generation (call that 25 years), we'll still be over a billion people 475 years from now. Population is increasing; we're not about to start shrinking by 10% per generation anytime soon. There's nothing "desperate" about this.
On the other hand, if we wreck the whole planet and 90% of us die off, we'll reach a billion people in the relatively short term.