There's a 2018 book of interviews of many well-known researchers where they're asked about future prospects: http://book.mfordfuture.com/ (list of interviewees on that page). The actual interview dates weren't specified but don't seem to be earlier than 2017, in my reading. Almost all of them greatly underestimated progress up to now, or refused to say much. (I'm hedging a little bit because it's a year since I read it, and memory is fuzzy.)
Shane Legg of DeepMind wrote a blog post at the opening of the 2010s where he stuck his neck out to predict AGI with a time distribution peaking around 2030. He thought the major development would be in reinforcement learning, rather than the self-supervised GPT stuff.
Shane Legg of DeepMind wrote a blog post at the opening of the 2010s where he stuck his neck out to predict AGI with a time distribution peaking around 2030. He thought the major development would be in reinforcement learning, rather than the self-supervised GPT stuff.