Too late IMO. Twitter the incumbent, Threads just popped up out of nowhere with a whole heap of users.

People switch when other people switch, generally. Those tired of Twitter now have an easy place to call home, there's not going to be any momentum to then want to switch again.

Mastodon tried, and did get some following, but IMO is too complicated in concept for the common user. Bsky on the other hand just blew it.

threads is going to split communities if it takes off, given that EU is locked out of it.

Threads is federating with Mastodon, which is good for both of them.

Federation will end faster than you can say “The Gmail web client does not have an interface for joining chat rooms on other [Jabber] servers” [0]

0. https://webapps.stackexchange.com/questions/12237/how-can-i-...

But Gmail is a web client for the greatest federation success story of all time?

Yeah, email is the biggest federation protocol.

One of the main open questions is how abuse will be handled. Mastodon is operated by volunteers with little extra time, in the worst case you handle abuse by just de-federating from an entire instance. Saves time for Mastodon mods. I don't think you can do that with Threads?

I’ll be so amazed if they don’t chop that off very early. Embrace Extend Extinguish

I will link to the article that changed my mind on this: https://ploum.net/2023-06-23-how-to-kill-decentralised-netwo...

It was recently discussed here at HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456233

TL;DR: it might be the 'Embrace, Extend, Extinguish' strategy.

Just tried it, didn't work.