To sign up you need to choose to download the app and click sign up (it isn’t automatic from using your Instagram) so while integrating it with Insta gives it an easy leg up I don’t really see your comparison.
Let’s see how many stick around. Don’t get me wrong, I suspect you’re right. But given the promotion and ease of login I’m not at all surprised to see huge day one login numbers. The question is whether people like what they see enough to stick around.
I'm certainly not sticking around. I signed up, pulled over my follow list from IG, muted a bunch of brand accounts I didn't follow, realized the feed was 100% algorithmic, and haven't launched it again since.
There just isn't enough room in this market for contributors to post on this many text-based apps. And so consolidation will happen.
1) Threads will dominate. Mastodon will be like remora fish.
2) Twitter will be the home for "freedom of speech", Crypto bros, OnlyFans girls.
3) Truth Social, Gab, Post, Blueksy, Spoutible etc will die.