There were and increasingly are some major concerns about the economy. For starters we're still seeing very low unemployment with rapidly decreasing personal saving rate (near record lows) [0], increased tapping into 401ks early[1], and record credit debt [2].
More people are working and yet are less able to pay for things. Even if you completely ignore inflation, something seems very concerning about this.
The fact that the market is divorced from reality doesn't mean that our economic fundamentals are strong.
That doesn't even touch on the looming crisis with commercial real estate impacting the already unstable small banks which is just starting to unravel now [3], or the major threats to the insurance industry that are starting to appear with increased effects of climate change [4].
What's going on right now economically is strange, and it's a far better to question "wait, why aren't we in a recession?" than it is to mock those who claimed we would be (though I do tend to avoid 100% claims).
There were and increasingly are some major concerns about the economy. For starters we're still seeing very low unemployment with rapidly decreasing personal saving rate (near record lows) [0], increased tapping into 401ks early[1], and record credit debt [2].
More people are working and yet are less able to pay for things. Even if you completely ignore inflation, something seems very concerning about this.
The fact that the market is divorced from reality doesn't mean that our economic fundamentals are strong.
That doesn't even touch on the looming crisis with commercial real estate impacting the already unstable small banks which is just starting to unravel now [3], or the major threats to the insurance industry that are starting to appear with increased effects of climate change [4].
What's going on right now economically is strange, and it's a far better to question "wait, why aren't we in a recession?" than it is to mock those who claimed we would be (though I do tend to avoid 100% claims).
[0] https://www.finder.com/personal-saving-rate#:~:text=The%20pe....
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/workers-are-still-raiding-the...
[2] https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-c...
[3] https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-regio...
[4] https://www.wsj.com/finance/insurance-catastrophe-reinsuranc...