"Although the coronaviruses known to have been used in the research were too distant to have caused the pandemic,..."
Key words, "known to have been used". Given the bad practices of the lab at the WIV, the purposeful obfuscation by major players, and China's history in this, I wouldn't accept that statement lightly from the article.
I believe the pandemic originated at the lab based on likelihood over the competing natural origins hypothesis.
>I believe the pandemic originated at the lab based on likelihood
I believe there is simply not enough evidence in the public domain to favour either hypothesis. Of course China's lack of cooperation paints a bad picture, but this lack of evidence should not be confused with actual evidence. Unless we find the zoonotic reservoir (which might no longer exist or at least not in a form that allows for conclusive evidence) or China comes out with an admission of guilt (either by the government or by individuals - both highly unlikely), we might never know the truth.
I think you're not aware of all the available evidence. The lab leak theory does not implicate China so much as it implicates particular people in the US who intentionally moved the research to China to evade the US' ban on gain-of-function research. These same people then got to be the experts with the authority to craft the official narrative on the subject.
The most important pieces of evidence (imho) are
- No evidence for zoonotic origin has been uncovered, *and it's not for lack of trying*.
- Peter Daszak applied for funding with DARPA to take a bat coronavirus and insert the furin cleavage site; his proposal was rejected.
- The cover-up started with the "proximal origins" paper: a *peer-reviewed* paper in a *respectable journal* establishing zoonotic origin with certainty in the public eye. The Fauci emails show that the authors were far from certain, and several were leaning the other way.
I simply do not get my "evidence" from known conspiracy theorists or sites known to be funded by them. If you really want to go to these bubbles, you might as well find sources claiming evidence for the exact opposite. But as of today there exists no credible, vetted evidence to support either side.
Yes, we will never know for certain, however here are some facts:
The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which conducted research on zoonotic viruses, including coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2, is about 7.5 miles as the crow flies from the Huanan wet market in Wuhan where COVID is said to have originated. 28 min.or 17.6km by car.
Coronavirus research and "gain-of-function" experiments were conducted at the WIV.
Bats were studied and collected from caves by the Wuhan CDC (there's part of your zooonotic origin; circumstantially, it doesn't take much to play with those viruses in the wild with modern genome editing).
There is documentation that the WIV lab was not up to the same safety protocols and standards as its Western counterparts.
Yes, we will never know with certainty the origins of COVID-19, however, given the coverups, the proximity and nature of work done at the WIV, the suppression of information, wiping of databases by China, and more, I would put a very high probability on it, and seek to end any research or funding of the WIV by the U.S. and others.
Simulations show that 2/3 of zoonotic viruses, like coronaviruses, fizzle out and do not lead to pandemics, so the odds are stacked against a zoonotic origin for the Covid-19 pandemic.
<<or China comes out with an admission
or Fauci and all involved from all parties are waterboarded until we get to the bottom of it ;)
This is the correct approach. Greedy sampling/argmaxxing over our choices comes from our mind's desire for certainty. Just because our mind desires certainty doesn't mean it exists. In my own experience, it's much more rewarding to understand where this drive for undeserved certainty originates than to foreclose on a conclusion.
> Unless we find the zoonotic reservoir (which might no longer exist
Which would be shocking given that highly infectious viruses do not simply just disappear after a cross species spillover. Did covid stop spreading amongst humans when dogs/deer/cats got infected? Not only should an independent ancestor branch still be circulating but it should be circulating amongst intermediate species all throughout Asia. It's like a virus pre-adapted towards humans magically appeared and then vanished without a trace, I heard on virologist coin it as the "immaculate infection"
You could say that about any trial. What we know is that a jury acquitted him. If you think you have more or better information than them, you can believe anything you want. But we are far from any public sentence or acquittal regarding the origins of covid, so people have even less right to form such strong opinions in this case.
Key words, "known to have been used". Given the bad practices of the lab at the WIV, the purposeful obfuscation by major players, and China's history in this, I wouldn't accept that statement lightly from the article.
I believe the pandemic originated at the lab based on likelihood over the competing natural origins hypothesis.