AMD has taken more CPU market share from Intel than Apple.
But the weird thing about the "Nvidia will remain undefeated forever" theory is that it seems to assume they have some kind of permanent advantage.
Nvidia was well positioned to make an early investment in this because they had the right combination of existing technology and resources. Other companies would have had to invest more because they were starting from a different place (e.g. Microsoft), or didn't have the resources to invest at the time (AMD).
But now the market is proven and there are more than half a dozen 800 pound gorillas who all want a piece of it. It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in. Maybe some of the others will stumble, but all of them? Apple, AMD, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook?
And even a Tesla optimist would presumably admit that maintaining a third of the EV market would be a huge win for Tesla, as the EV market becomes "the car market" going forward. Maybe that won't happen, but it's at least within the realm of possibility -- maybe some of the existing carmakers stick the transition and some of them fail, but Tesla remains the biggest one, that's not impossible.
But maintaining the 80% they had a few years ago, much less 100%? That's not optimism, it's fantasizing.
But the weird thing about the "Nvidia will remain undefeated forever" theory is that it seems to assume they have some kind of permanent advantage.
Nvidia was well positioned to make an early investment in this because they had the right combination of existing technology and resources. Other companies would have had to invest more because they were starting from a different place (e.g. Microsoft), or didn't have the resources to invest at the time (AMD).
But now the market is proven and there are more than half a dozen 800 pound gorillas who all want a piece of it. It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in. Maybe some of the others will stumble, but all of them? Apple, AMD, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook?