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Perennial reminder that we do not have any real evidence that we are anywhere close to AGI, or that "throwing more resources at LLMs" is even theoretically a possible way to get to an AGI.

"Lots of people with either a financial motivation to say so or a deep desire for AGI to be real Soon™ said they can do it" is not actual evidence.

We do not know how to make an AGI. We do not know how to define an AGI. It is hypothetically possible that we could accidentally stumble into one, but nothing has actually shown that, and counting on it is a fool's bet.



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