The next major "avoidable, man-made" crisis is the slow-motion implosion of the property insurance market due to climate risk.
We're already seeing insurers flee entire states like California and Florida. The domino effect is simple: no insurance means no mortgage, and no mortgage means the underlying asset is functionally worthless to anyone but a cash buyer. This isn't just a problem for individual homeowners; it's a systemic threat. Trillions of dollars in real estate collateralizing mortgage-backed securities are sitting in these increasingly uninsurable zones. It's the 2008 playbook, but the risk isn't a bad loan—it's the physical asset itself.
This is also due to the manmade real estate crisis, housing should be cheap, not the “main” investment, we should have a normal rebuilding effort like in Japan.
We're already seeing insurers flee entire states like California and Florida. The domino effect is simple: no insurance means no mortgage, and no mortgage means the underlying asset is functionally worthless to anyone but a cash buyer. This isn't just a problem for individual homeowners; it's a systemic threat. Trillions of dollars in real estate collateralizing mortgage-backed securities are sitting in these increasingly uninsurable zones. It's the 2008 playbook, but the risk isn't a bad loan—it's the physical asset itself.