LLM derived AGI is possible but LLM by itself is not the answer. The problem I see right now is that because there’s so much money at stake, we’ve effectively spread out core talent across many organizations. It used to be Google and maybe Meta. We need a critical mass of talent (think Manhattan Project). It doesn't help that the Chinese pulled a lot of talent back home because a big chunk of early successes and innovations came from those people that we, the US, alienated.