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The theory (which I don't really think stands up) is that software companies will lose value because everyone just gets an LLM to generate them the software they need instead.




There are variants of the theory that are actually pretty sound, but it's more about the critical mass open source will achieve and the reduced friction that agents will bring to self hosting.

What closed source software company can compete on features against the entire world's collective agents? What sales pitch do hosted saas vendors have when you can spin up a container for your open source saas of choice pre-configured, and the agent can tweak stuff and offload ops efficiently? We're ~2 years away from this reality.


This theory falls apart because I dont think a regular internet user can just generate something complex like Photoshop/Figma/Final Cut Pro via LLMs.

Even hardcore top level engineer wont be able to do it just via LLMs


Also, all the biggest software companies run network services. You could download your own search engine forever, but it doesn't mean anything without the Google data centers and crawlers. Likewise there's a million open source twitter clones, but without the users they have no real utility to the average person. The era of shrink wrap software has been over for a long time.



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